Page 186 - JOURNAL OF LIBRARY SCIENCE IN CHINA 2015 Vol. 41

Ge SONG / The diffusion process of academic innovation 185

the period have been marked in the figure. During the five years after the proposal of structural
holes theory, the theory does not spread rapidly. Only two related papers (nodes 397, 396), are
published by Burt himself in 1993 and 1995. Until 1997, the theory was introduced to the field
of business and economics by Walker (node 395), structural holes theory began its propagation
process. Obviously, the network does not reflect more features and details of the diffusion, thus
further analysis is needed.

3.2 The diffusion curve of structural holes theory

Structural holes theory is an important academic innovation, so the knowledge diffusion process
appears as an S-curve as expected, and is shown in Figure 2 with the cumulative curve. The x axis
shows the moment of adoption, while the y axis represents the number of documents adopting
the innovation. Diffusion rate and acceleration of structural holes theory are showed in Table 1.
In 2010 the highest diffusion acceleration reaches to 16 and shows as a second-order inflection
point on the S-curve. The diffusion at that time reached the critical value, it can be predicted that
the successful diffusion of structural holes theory will complete the S-shape diffusion process.
However, because the diffusion rate is still growing, it is unable to determine when to reach the
first-order inflection point of the S-curve. As for the diffusion stage, maturity stage and decline
stage have not yet appeared at this time. Since 2007, significantly increased acceleration appeared,
therefore, the time period from 1992 to 2006 can be identified as the start stage of diffusion, and
the take-off stage began from 2007.

diffusion rate
400
take-off Cum of papers
stage diffusion rate
Cum of papers
300

Number of papers 200

100
start stage

0

2001
2000
1992
2002
1995
1996
1993
1994
1998
1999
1997
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 2. Diffusion curve of structural holes theory.